Net Zero Scenario. We have produced a single, unified Net Zero Scenario that is economics-led and solves for a mix of technology solutions, building on the three distinct technology paradigms presented in last year’s report. It charts an energy transition pathway consistent with the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming well below 2C, while pursuing the more ambitious 1.5C target and achieving net-zero emissions worldwide by 2050. We have designed our Net Zero Scenario to be plausible and achievable. It takes a sector-based approach to decarbonization, avoiding drastic step-changes that would over-stretch the expansion capacity of supply chains and the speed at which assets can change over.
Country-level results. In addition to global and sector results, this year’s outlook for the first time includes country-level results for China, India, Japan, Indonesia, Australia, the US, Germany, France and the UK.
Updated Economic Transition Scenario. We have completely updated our base case ETS scenario for 25 regions, incorporating the impact of the global energy crisis, the war in Ukraine, and the impact of recent policy changes in major markets.
Improved industry modeling. Decarbonization in the steel, aluminum, and cement industries is now based on a least-cost approach to abatement. This incorporates detailed BNEF analysis on the future cost of abatement in these sectors and the existing infrastructure by country. We also update our material-demand forecasts.
Improved gas price modeling. As part of this year’s NEO modeling process, BNEF has piloted a partnership with the market simulation team at RBAC, using their supply model to produce a price forecast with our demand scenarios as input.
