EVO 2022

This report is an executive summary of BloombergNEF’s seventh annual Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook (EVO).

Electric Vehicle Outlook 2022

Introduction

What's new in EVO 2022?

Mobility is at the core of modern civilization, and the way people and goods move impacts many aspects of life. The years ahead will bring significant changes as electrification, shared mobility and, eventually, autonomous vehicles reshape automotive and freight markets around the world.

This report is an executive summary of BloombergNEF’s seventh annual Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook (EVO). There are now almost 20 million passenger EVs on the road and electrification has spread to other segments of road transport. There are over 1.3 million commercial EVs, including buses, delivery vans and trucks, and there are over 280 million electric mopeds, scooters, motorcycles and three-wheelers on the road globally. Battery technology continues to improve, policy pressure toward ‘net zero’ is rising in many countries, and automakers are ramping up manufacturing of compelling new EV models.

Despite the rapid rise in EV adoption, road transport is still not on track for carbon neutrality by 2050. Simply changing out the drivetrain of vehicles may not be the most efficient way to deliver net zero, and a full range of solutions – including more public transit, and active transport options – will be needed. Aggressive action from policy makers will be required, especially on heavier vehicles, where both batteries and hydrogen fuel cells are vying for a place in the market. The window to stay on track for net zero is closing quickly.

There is also a widening gap between wealthy and emerging economies on EV adoption. There is a growing risk that the transition is not an equitable one, and that many economies miss out on the benefits of better air quality and new investment. Raw materials supply constraints for batteries also look very tight for the years ahead. This is set to push back the point of EV price parity in some segments but will not derail the global EV market.

This report draws on BloombergNEF’s team of sectoral and regional experts around the world. It updates our outlook for how road transport could evolve over the next 30 years. It includes analysis on EV adoption in passenger vehicles, commercial vans and trucks, two- and three-wheeled vehicles and buses globally. It also looks at other drivetrains, including hybrids and fuel cells, and then explores the resulting impacts of all of these on electricity markets, oil demand, battery materials, charging infrastructure, and CO2 emissions. This year’s outlook includes analysis in several new areas, including the potential role of vehicle-to-grid technology.

"There are now almost 20 million passenger EVs on the road, 1.3 million commercial EVs, including buses, delivery vans and trucks, and over 280 million electric mopeds, scooters, motorcycles and three-wheelers."

Electric Vehicle Outlook 2022, BloombergNEF

What’s new in EVO 2022?

The important new areas of analysis in this year’s EVO are the following:

Net Zero Scenario. Based on an economic analysis of competing technologies in each segment, we have developed a scenario for what a vehicle fleet capable of zero CO2 emissions could look like. Despite the rapid growth of EV sales, only a few countries are currently on track to reach net zero by 2050 and most will need additional policy interventions in the years ahead. This is especially true in emerging economies. The focus of the Net Zero Scenario is on tailpipe emissions, and it does not explicitly bring upstream emissions from electricity generation, hydrogen production or vehicle manufacturing to zero. This year’s Net Zero Scenario includes country-level analysis for the main passenger vehicle markets.
New thematic highlights. This year’s outlook includes includes five Thematic Highlights on important emerging topic areas:
– The EV adoption gap between wealthy and emerging economies
– Heavy duty long-haul trucking: batteries versus hydrogen fuel cells
– The value of vehicle-to-grid: A U.K. case study
– The supply and demand dynamics for battery metals from now to 2030
– Reshaping mobility demand through modal shifts
Updated lithium-ion battery price, volume and chemistry forecast based on our most recent market survey: We have developed a new battery chemistry forecast for the passenger vehicle market that reflects rising deployment of lithium-iron phosphate (LFP) batteries and other advancements in new cathode chemistries. We have also adapted our battery pack size projections for China to reflect the success of very small EVs there.
Updated expected energy consumption from EVs to reflect real-world vehicle efficiencies. This includes losses from charger inefficiencies, cold weather driving, and battery degradation over time.
Updated metals outlook. We have updated our near-term supply and demand balance for the critical metals and materials needed to scale up EV production, many of which are at record high prices. This includes lithium, cobalt and nickel.
New breakout section on three-wheeled vehicles. This was previously combined with two-wheeled vehicles. This segment is electrifying faster than any other and is mostly on track to achieve our Net Zero scenario.
Finally, we have re-run our vehicle economics and Bass-diffusion models using the most recent EV sales data and vehicle pricing for all segments. The EV market is still in the early stages so each additional year of data helps calibrate results. Our passenger EV results are slightly higher than last year’s outlook, due mostly to faster adoption in China and Europe. The outlook is also higher for electric trucks, while buses and two-wheeler results are in a similar range to last year.

Near-Term Outlook

Passenger EV sales are set to continue rising sharply in the years ahead as policy pressure continues to increase, more models hit the market, and consumer interest takes off. Plug-in vehicle sales rise from 6.6 million in 2021 to 20.6 million in 2025. This is higher than last year’s Outlook, due primarily to higher adoption in China.
The rising cost of batteries does not derail near-term EV adoption. Some of the factors that are driving high battery raw material costs – war, inflation, trade friction – are also pushing the price of gasoline and diesel to record highs, which is driving more consumer interest in EVs. Internal combustion engine vehicles are also becoming more expensive to produce.
By 2025, plug-in vehicles represent 23% of new passenger vehicle sales globally, up from just under 10% in 2021. Three quarters of those are full battery electric vehicles (BEV). Plug-in hybrids do not gain a significant share of the market outside Europe and peak globally around 2026. Fuel cell vehicle sales increase slightly due to a push in China, but overall have no meaningful impact in the passenger vehicle segment.
The EV share of sales in some markets is much higher, with EVs reaching 39% of sales in 2025 in China and in Europe. Some of the major European car markets go even faster, with Germany, the UK and France all between 40-50% in 2025.
China and Europe account for almost 80% of EV sales in 2025, with adoption running much slower elsewhere. The U.S. market starts to pick up from 2023 but still only represents 15% of the global EV market in 2025.
Most importantly, the market is shifting from being driven primarily by policy, to one where organic consumer demand is the most important factor. As regulatory drivers begin to play less of a role, consumer adoption dynamics – the ‘S-curve’ – take over. Supply is already a larger constraint on adoption than demand in many countries.
The acceleration in EV adoption means that combustion vehicle sales peaked globally in 2017 and are now in permanent decline. By 2025 passenger ICE sales are 19% below their 2017 peak. Managing the decline while investing in the future is a major challenge for some legacy automakers.
As of mid-2022, there are just under 20 million passenger EVs on the road (including plug-in hybrids), representing 1.5% of the global fleet. It takes time for the change in new sales to flow through to the fleet.

"By 2025 there are 77 million passenger EVs on the road, representing 6% of the fleet. Some regions go faster, with EVs represent 13% of all vehicles on the road in China and 8% in Europe in that year."

Electric Vehicle Outlook 2022, BloombergNEF

The global fleet of passenger vehicles with an internal combustion engine continues to grow

for another two years, but then starts to decline in 2024.
Electrification of other segments is also accelerating and there are a growing number of successful country case studies in both wealthy and emerging economies. For example:

- China has 685,000 electric buses on the road and 195 million electric two-wheelers
- 17% of light commercial vehicles sales in South Korea were electric in 2021
- Almost 40% of India’s three-wheeler fleet is already electric

"Global sales of commercial electric vans and trucks more than doubled in 2021. Most of these are lighter vehicles, where the market is set to turn electric quickly in the 2020s."

Electric Vehicle Outlook 2022, BloombergNEF

Adoption is supported by more models available, corporate fleet commitments, favorable economics and rising concerns about urban air quality.
The market for medium- and heavy-duty trucks is also starting to move, with close to 10,000

units sold in 2021. That is set to continue, as some of the largest global truck makers are targeting between 35% and 60% of their annual sales to be zero-emission, and primarily all-electric, by 2030.
The truck market is highly varied. In urban duty cycles, battery electric trucks of any size become the cheapest option for several use cases in the 2020s. That is due to a combination of factors, including improving battery technologies, modest driving ranges, and the relatively large efficiency penalty of diesel trucks in urban traffic, which tend to consist of congested and recurring start-stop operation.
Megawatt-scale charging stations, as well as the emergence of higher energy density batteries by the end of the 2020s, result in battery-electric trucks becoming a viable option for heavy-duty long-haul operations, especially for volume-limited use cases.
Fuel cell models in this segment will be introduced in higher numbers in the late 2020s, but more all-battery trucks are launching and they are set to command a higher market share. FCV adoption remains case- and location-specific, requiring substantial and technology-exclusive policy support. The hydrogen supply, distribution and refueling infrastructure for trucks is also still years away from reaching the necessary scale for most fleet operators to make the switch.

Long-Term Outlook

Economic Transition Scenario

From 2026 onward, our outlook splits into two scenarios. Our Economic Transition Scenario (ETS) is primarily driven by techno-economic trends and market forces, and assumes no new policies or regulations are enacted that impact the market. The second scenario investigates what a potential route to net-zero emissions looks like for the road transport sector by 2050. This Net Zero Scenario (NZS) looks primarily at economics as the deciding factor for which drivetrain technologies are implemented to hit the 2050 target.
Under the Economic Transition Scenario, passenger EV sales continue rising quickly as battery prices fall. Unsubsidized price parity between EVs and internal combustion vehicles is achieved in most segments and countries by the late 2020s.
After increasing rapidly over the next 10-15 years, EV sales growth in the Economic Transition Scenario slows down slightly in the 2030s in the main EV markets like Europe, China and North America, as they begin to

saturate and exit the steepest part of the s-curve.
This scenario does not assume that the EU’s 2035 combustion vehicle phase out target is hit, but the region gets quite close with almost 80% of sales going fully electric by that date.
Despite the relatively rapid growth of EV sales, this takes time to flow through to the fleet and there are still 800 million ICE vehicles on the road in 2040 – more than half the fleet.
EVs take longer to spread in India, Southeast Asia and our Rest of World countries, including markets like Mexico, Brazil and Russia where policy support is limited or non-existent.

Over half of global ICE sales are in emerging economies by 2035, increasing to 60% by 2040 despite these countries representing a much smaller share of total vehicle sales. Looking at the fleet, this means half of combustion cars on the road in 2040 are located in these countries.

"A two-tiered global auto market is emerging, with the economic and air quality benefits of electrification set to accrue very unevenly between wealthy and emerging economies. Urgent action is needed to help close this gap."

Electric Vehicle Outlook 2022, BloombergNEF

The ETS trajectory suggests a two-tiered global auto market is emerging and that the benefits of electrification are set to accrue very unevenly. Air quality in urban areas is already markedly different between wealthy and emerging economies and this gap will widen further if the EV adoption gap is not addressed. Grid reliability will be a challenge in some countries.

Electric commercial vehicles reach cost parity with diesel ones within the 2020s in most market segments. Battery vans and lighter trucks are already gaining market share and by 2030 account for just under a third of the market in the Economic Transition Scenario. Global EV sales shares in these segments reach 60% by 2040, while exceeding 75% in several countries.
Electrification of heavier vehicles has started at low levels and, by 2040, one third of medium- and heavy-duty truck sales globally are electric. For these vehicles, adoption varies more between countries. Electric truck sales in Europe, the US and China are between 45-55% by that time, but are just over 20% elsewhere. In these segments, natural gas vehicles grab market share in some countries.
Electric bus sales continue to rise steadily, with 44% of new sales and 18% of the global fleet already electric. 98% of the global e-bus fleet is still in China, but activity is picking up in other countries. The global e-bus fleet reaches 1.75 million by 2040, representing 62% of all buses on the road. Hydrogen fuel cell buses also play a role in some markets with strong government support for the technology.

Progress on municipal e-buses in the US is slower than in Europe and China, but there is a unique opportunity emerging to electrify the country’s 500,000 school buses with $2.5 billion in new government support for this area.
Buses and two- and three-wheeled vehicles achieve the highest EV adoption rates by 2040 in the Economic Transition Scenario, followed by passenger cars, then light commercial vehicles. By 2040, there are over 700 million passenger EVs on the road and over 750 million electric two- and three-wheelers.

Net Zero Scenario & policy implications

"The window for achieving net-zero emissions in the road transport sector by 2050 is still open, but urgent action is needed and there is no room for complacency."

Electric Vehicle Outlook 2022, BloombergNEF

Some vehicle segments and geographies are almost on track for net zero under the Economic Transition Scenario (ETS); others are not.
To get on track for a net-zero global fleet by 2050, zero-emission vehicles need to represent 61% of global new passenger vehicle sales by 2030, 93% by 2035, and 100% by 2038.
In the Economic Transition Scenario, none of the analyzed countries achieves a full phase-out of combustion vehicle sales by 2038. Some get close – notably Germany, the UK, France and China – and some smaller auto markets are on track to easily achieve this.
Even though the costs of EVs and chargers are set to fall further in the decade ahead, emerging economies need financial support to help enable and accelerate the transition to electric mobility of all types.
Developed countries and multilateral institutions should include electric vehicle investments, incentives and charging infrastructure deployments in their international climate finance plans, making capital available to emerging economies with credible plans to develop this sector. Concessional finance has been a key enabler for the development of renewable power generation in emerging economies, and could play a similar role in the EV sector.
The fleet of passenger electric vehicles hits 469 million in 2035 in the Economic Transition Scenario but needs to jump to 612 million by the same date in the Net Zero Scenario. Much of the gap will have to be met in emerging economies.

"Urgent action is needed from policymakers in all countries on the heavy-truck segment, which is the furthest from achieving net zero. By 2040, zero-emission medium and heavy commercial vehicles are 95% of sales in our Net Zero Scenario, but just 35% in the ETS."

Electric Vehicle Outlook 2022, BloombergNEF

In addition to introducing tighter fuel economy or CO2 standards for trucks, governments may need to consider mandates for the electrification of fleets, including those of governments and transport operators. Governments should also consider zero-emissions zones in cites, and incentives to push freight into smaller trucks which can electrify faster than larger ones.

The ‘adoption gap’ between the scenarios is much smaller for two/three-wheelers (23 percentage points in 2035) and buses (13 percentage points in 2035).
Given the minor additional push needed to bend the curve on buses and 2/3-wheelers to net zero, policymakers should have high confidence that electrification targets in these segments can be met. Policy action for these segments can be an early win and should be taken without delay. Buses and 2/3 wheelers are the biggest near-term opportunity for electrification in emerging economies and can also create new jobs and local manufacturing investment.

"Across all segments, sales of new internal combustion vehicles need to be phased out by 2038 to stay on track for the Net Zero Scenario."

Electric Vehicle Outlook 2022, BloombergNEF

Even with that, some early retirements and conversions of older vehicles will be needed in the 2040s. This will require a surge in EV and battery production which peaks in 2040 that could be challenging for the industry to deliver.

Direct electrification via batteries is still the most economically attractive and efficient approach to decarbonizing road transport and should be pursued wherever possible. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles can help fill the small gaps left by electrification in some heavy vehicles, in regions or duty cycles where batteries struggle.
In the Net Zero Scenario, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are 10% of medium and heavy commercial trucks on the road in 2050, some 15% of municipal buses, and 2% of the passenger vehicle fleet. The balance is fully electric vehicles.
Electric vehicles represent a $9 trillion market opportunity between today and 2030, and $53 trillion between today and 2050, in the Economic Transition Scenario. This increases to $82 trillion between today and 2050 in the Net Zero Scenario. Countries should be carefully considering how they can create economic value-add and domestic jobs from this growth.
EVs are already a remarkable success story and are needed to bring transport emissions under control. But using them alone is not the most efficient way to reach Net Zero. This year’s Outlook includes a ‘reduced demand scenario’, looking at how governments can combat further car dependency. Even a modest 10% reduction in kilometers travelled by car globally in 2050 yields major benefits and makes the journey to net zero much easier.
The reduced demand scenario involves modal shifts, primarily to active transport (cycling and walking) and public transport. In it, the global car fleet drops by 200 million cars in 2050. This is the equivalent of the combined car fleets of the UK, Germany, France and Italy today.
The reduced demand scenario also reduces CO2 emissions by 2.25Gt cumulatively to 2050, and cuts annual battery demand by 433GWh in 2050, reducing strain on supply chains. Governments should prioritize investments in these areas, many of which also have concurrent health benefits. An ‘all of the above’ approach is needed to stay on track for net zero.

Batteries & charging infrastructure

Batteries

EV battery demand is rising quickly, with 2021 shipments 94% higher than in 2020. By 2030, EV battery demand grows to 3,486GWh in the Economic Transition Scenario. Manufacturers have announced plans totaling 4,151GWh of annual capacity due by 2025. China still dominates, but capacity is growing in other regions.
The timing for achieving battery pack prices below $100/kWh on a volume-weighted average basis has become less certain, as raw material prices have significantly impacted costs over the last 12 months. If raw material prices remain elevated or climb further, this could delay the timeline by a couple of years, out from 2024 in most markets. However, introduction of new cell chemistries and manufacturing equipment and techniques will help to continue to bring costs down. Simplified pack designs for battery-electric vehicle platforms also contribute.
Automakers have significantly grown their commitment to LFP (lithium iron phosphate)-based chemistries, which we now expect to account for 42% of battery demand by 2023, including through variations such as LMFP (lithium iron manganese phosphate), where the addition of manganese will further improve energy density.
New EV battery chemistries will continue to be adopted in an effort to provide longer ranges or lighter packs. By the end of the decade new chemistries using more manganese, such as NMCA and NMC (96Ni), will become prevalent to reduce pressure on nickel.

Battery materials

The supply of lithium, cobalt, manganese and nickel chemicals suitable for lithium-ion batteries could be tight this decade under our Economic Transition Scenario. New refining facilities and investment will be required. Higher

prices and new technologies should help the market respond to this need.
The total demand for lithium surpasses 2.4 million metric tons lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2030, up 259% from current demand. Companies have invested in the chemical convertors that produce carbonate and hydroxide, while ignoring upstream raw material extraction. This has led to a squeeze in the upstream market driving lithium prices up over the last 18 months. These high prices will lead to the development of new projects, which should lead to prices easing over the next 12 months due to more supply becoming available to meet demand.
About $5.4 billion is needed to ensure the building of 400,000t LCE in lithium raw material supply, a volume that is currently in the pipeline for 2021-2025 but not yet financed. For the chemical convertors, an additional 100,000t LCE carbonate and 300,000t LCE hydroxide capacity planned by 2025 still needs at least $8.4 billion to be successfully developed.
Nickel demand reaches about 1.5 million metric tons in 2030. Current nickel sulfate capacity will grow from 534,000 metric tons nickel equivalent this year to 626,000 metric tons nickel equivalent in 2030.
The announced capacity of upcoming nickel sulfate projects will only be enough to meet demand up to 2023. Building refineries is a faster process than developing new mines, which require between 2-5 years of development time. Hence, most refinery or chemical companies do not make capacity addition announcements beyond the five-year time horizon. By 2023, as demand grows, we expect the announcement of new refinery additions to increase. This will help to keep the nickel sulfate market in balance to 2030.

Our Net Zero Scenario requires huge increases in battery raw material supply by 2050. Without large-scale battery recycling, cumulative lithium, nickel and cobalt demand exceeds currently known reserves over this period. However, with recycling there is the prospect of an almost-fully circular battery industry by mid-century.
To test the long-term implications, we have created two chemistry-mix scenarios. Our base chemistry mix relies heavily on the current generation of nickel-based and LFP cathodes, while our progressive chemistry mix uses next-generation cathodes that use fewer or less expensive raw materials.

In order to keep demand in balance for lithium, nickel and cobalt, a range of approaches will be needed that will require governments, automakers, cell manufacturers, miners and recyclers to work together. These include the need for dense public charging networks, new cell chemistries, widespread recycling and investment in new mining and refining capacity. New extraction technologies and sustained high prices could also change known reserves.

"A range of approaches can help alleviate long-term battery material supply constraints, including more investment in mining and refining, investments in new cell chemistries, widespread recycling, and more public charging infrastructure to help reduce battery pack sizes."

Electric Vehicle Outlook 2022, BloombergNEF

Automakers will switch battery chemistries to reduce their reliance on metals associated with higher prices or supply concerns. Over the last three years automakers have revised their battery chemistries to decrease their reliance on cobalt due to challenges pertaining to child labor in the Democratic Republic of Congo and rising prices.
BNEF’s demand forecast for cobalt has also decreased over the last three years in line with automakers’ targets. Some automakers have switched entirely to LFP batteries while others have reduced their cobalt exposure as seen in the transition from NMC 622 to NMC 811 (denoting different ratios of nickel, manganese and cobalt in the cathode).
This effect highlights how market participants can act to overcome predicted raw material shortages or rising prices. High prices like that being experienced today not only drive investments in new supply, but also induce demand-side substitution. Battery raw materials are thus likely to undergo the same cyclical fluctuations as other commodity markets in the long term.

Charging infrastructure

Between today and 2040, the cumulative investment in charging infrastructure exceeds $1 trillion globally in the Economic Transition Scenario and $1.4 trillion in the Net Zero Scenario. By this time between 340 and 490 million chargers are needed across all locations globally, with the total dominated by home chargers. Chargers outside the home account for between 42 and 59 million chargers by 2040, depending on scenario.

"EV charging infrastructure is a trillion dollar market opportunity over the next 20 years, but the pace of installations needs to accelerate rapidly."

Electric Vehicle Outlook 2022, BloombergNEF

Fast chargers deliver 50% of electric vehicle energy demand and account for 60% of all charging investment by 2040, but are less than 3% of total connectors. The charging network evolves over time to support more commercial vehicles such as electric vans, buses and trucks. The advent of autonomous vehicles will also affect the charging technologies used.
A big push is needed to scale up the industry quick enough so charging infrastructure is installed in time to support the expected electric vehicle fleet. The US faces one of the most difficult challenges, requiring a six-fold increase in average annual public charging installations over the next four years from those in 2021 to meet our outlook.
The needs of private car drivers will vary as many mass-market EV drivers are less likely to have access to home charging. The number of EVs per public charge connector rises to between 30 and 45 in most markets from between 5 and 20 EVs per public charge connector today, as use of charging infrastructure and average power delivery rises.
The total charging capacity needed in 2040 equates to about 6-7kW per EV in total, and 1-3kW for public charging alone, depending on scenario.
The investment to build an extensive charging network is still small in comparison to the size of the electric vehicle market, and in comparison to the subsidies that are currently distributed to other areas. Governments should consider moving subsidies to support network roll-out.
Our case study modelling the U.K power system indicates that it costs $1,800 per electric vehicle for the cumulative investment between 2020 and 2040 in charging infrastructure, installation and the related grid upgrades to support the extra electricity demand from electric vehicles. The grid upgrades make up 30% of costs.
More vehicles with vehicle-to-grid (V2G) capability are coming. V2G is attractive to governments and grid operators as it can increase renewable generation, lower emissions, and reduce power system costs. The charging and vehicle technology is becoming more widely available but it will be complex to create a business model that distributes value evenly across participants and incentivizes drivers to take part.
Oil and gas companies are getting more involved in public charging infrastructure, but still stand to lose significant revenues to private charging as EVs take off. Other revenue streams, such as hardware sales, installation and charger maintenance, will not make up the shortfall.

Oil, electricity & emissions

Oil

EVs of all types are currently displacing 1.5 million barrels per day of oil demand. 67% of this is from two- and three-wheeled vehicles and 16% is from buses. Passenger vehicles represent just 15% of displacement today, but this is set to grow sharply.
Oil demand from passenger cars, two-wheelers, three-wheelers, and buses has already peaked. Commercial vehicles are now the only segment contributing to growth.

"By 2025, EVs of all types displace almost 2.5 million barrels per day. Gasoline demand peaks in 2026, and total oil demand from road peaks shortly after in 2027."

Electric Vehicle Outlook 2022, BloombergNEF

In the ETS, demand declines from 43.6 million in 2019 to 34 million b/d by 2040. The drop is much sharper in the Net Zero Scenario, with demand falling an additional 10 million b/d by 2040, en route to a full phase out by 2050.
Governments need to develop detailed transition strategies for the industries affected by the shift to zero-emissions vehicles. This includes developing plans to recoup lost tax revenue from the sale of liquid fuels.

The politically acceptable solutions for this will vary by region.
The fall in oil demand does not necessarily mean a collapse in oil prices. If investments in new supply capacity fall faster than demand, prices could remain elevated and volatile.

Electricity

Global electricity demand from all electric vehicles reaches 3,338TWh in 2040 in our Economic Transition scenario, and 4,761TWh in the Net Zero Scenario. In the Net Zero Scenario, demand reaches 8,855TWh in 2050, when almost the whole fleet is assumed to be electric.
Electric vehicles of all types account for between 10% and 13% of total global electricity consumption by 2040, growing to between 15% and 21% by 2050, depending on the scenario. For these comparisons, we assume general electricity demand grows in line with previous trends. This means that the percentage shares do not account for the growth of electrification in other sectors, such as buildings and industry. A fully net-zero world would include much greater electricity demand from these other

sectors too, pushing down EVs’ share of power consumption.
The influence of different vehicle segments on total demand changes over time. When excluding China, passenger electric vehicles (privately owned and shared) are the largest source of demand, accounting for 75% of EV electricity demand today. This share falls to 48%-59% in 2050, depending on scenario, as electric van and truck demand grows. These vehicles become 34% to 48% of EV electricity demand in 2050, depending on the scenario.

Emissions

Road transport CO2 emissions continue to rise from their recent trough during the Covid-19 pandemic. In the Economic Transition Scenario, CO2 emissions from road transport return to above 2019 levels by 2023.
Despite the rapid rise of EVs, emissions do not peak until 2029, when they reach 6.7 GtCO2, an increase of about 7% from 2019. Emissions rise for two years after oil demand peaks because of the additional emissions from power plants providing electricity to the fleet of EVs.

Passenger vehicles make up 53% of road transport emissions in 2021 but drop to 38% by 2050 in the Economic Transition Scenario. Commercial vehicle and bus emissions rise from 42% of all emissions to 59%, highlighting the need for action in the trucking segment.
In 2050, the gap in annual direct road transport emissions between the two scenarios is still 3.5 gigatons of CO2. Urgent action is needed to close the gap. Rapid decarbonization of the power sector will also be required to ensure the full emissions benefits of electric vehicles are realized.

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