Introduction

Mobility is at the core of modern civilization, and the way people and goods move impacts many aspects of life. The years ahead will bring significant changes as electrification, shared mobility, vehicle connectivity and, eventually, autonomous vehicles reshape automotive and freight markets around the world.

This is BloombergNEF’s sixth annual Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook (EVO). There are now 12 million passenger EVs on the road and electrification is spreading to other segments of road transport. There are over 1 million commercial EVs, including buses, delivery vans and trucks, and there are over 260 million electric mopeds, scooters, motorcycles and three-wheelers on the road globally. Battery prices continue to fall, policy pressure toward ‘Net Zero’ is rising in many countries, and compelling new EV models are hitting the market.

Despite the rapid rise in EV adoption, road transport is still not on track for carbon neutrality by 2050 and aggressive action from policymakers will be needed, especially on heavier vehicles. The window to stay on track for Net Zero is closing quickly.

This report updates our outlook for how road transport could evolve over the next 20 years. It includes outlooks for EV adoption in passenger vehicles, commercial vans and trucks, two- and three-wheeled vehicles and buses globally. The Outlook includes detailed analysis on shared mobility, autonomous driving, freight demand, EV charging infrastructure and fuel cellvehicles, and explores the resulting impacts on electricity, oil, battery materials, hydrogen demand, and CO2 emissions.

"There are 12 million passenger EVs, one million commercial EVs, and over 260 million electric two- and three-wheelers on the road globally today."

Electric Vehicle Outlook 2021, BloombergNEF

What’s new in EVO 2021?

This year marks the first major increase to our EV adoption outlook in the last five years. This is driven by rising policy support in core auto markets, new battery technologies and lower expected costs, accelerated investment in charging infrastructure, and rising consumer adoption despite the Covid-19 pandemic. Progress on electric commercial vans and trucks is also picking up and is higher in this year’s outlook.The important new areas of analysis in this year’s EVO are the following:

Net Zero Scenario. Based on our economic analysis of competing technologies in each segment, we have developed a scenario for what a

vehicle fleet capable of zero CO2 emissions could look like. Despite the rapid growth of EV sales, most countries are currently not on track to reach net zero by 2050 and will need additional policy interventions in the years ahead. The focus of the Net Zero Scenario is on tailpipe emissions, and it does not explicitly bring upstream emissions from electricity generation, hydrogen production or vehicle manufacturing to zero. The Net Zero Scenario also looks at impacts on oil demand, electricity demand, battery metals demand, emissions and required charging infrastructure.

Additional countries covered. We have added outlooks for passenger vehicle markets in Italy, Canada and South East Asia. EV sales are picking up in these markets, but each has its own unique characteristics and progress varies between segments.

EV charging infrastructure outlook: We have further improved this after adding a charging infrastructure outlook last year. This includes new analysis on charger utilization rates, maintenance costs, overall economics, and the grid infrastructure investments needed to support these chargers.

Updated lithium-ion battery price and chemistry forecast based on our most recent market survey: We have developed a new battery chemistry forecast for each of the new segments covered in this year’s report and updated previous ones with the latest data. In the two- and three-wheeled vehicle market, we have also looked in more detail at how lithium-ion batteries will displace lead-acid ones in the years ahead.

Update on metals availability for batteries: This is based on our supply/demand outlook for key metals including cobalt, lithium and nickel. We have also included new analysis on metals demand and available reserves for our Net Zero Scenario.

Finally, we have re-run our vehicle economics and Bass-diffusion models using the most recent EV sales data and vehicle pricing for all segments. The EV market is still in the early stages so each additional year of data helps calibrate results.